The state of affairs in Kashmir during the past two decades have been agonising. The reasons that have been observed by many are Pakistan sponsored insurgency and terrorism, Armed forces act, demand for autonomy etc. These reasons cannot be denied but the major reason for the present state of Kashmir lies in the undercurrent of demographic imbalance and failed economic planning.
Kashmir observed large scale deaths in first decade of 19th century. Epidemics of cholera broke out three times. Three floods and eight earthquakes claimed thousands of lives. Epidemics of influenza, cholera and small pox occurred during the next decade and the 1920s saw another round of diseases and famine. Clearly Kashmir was in a state of despair in the pre-indepence era.
Post independence, there was success in combating this deprivation. From 1971 onwards J&K recorded growth rates higher (40% decadal) than the national average (30% decadal). 1981 census: over 40% of the population was made up of children under 14. The economic gains made during the previous decade ran into a wall. Despite their relative affluence, the economic stress was more on the earning individual. Dependency ratio was around 95 as compared to all India ratio of 78 (Dependency ratio measures the part of society dependent on economically productive individuals aged between 15 and 59). Insurgency started during this very time. Jihadist movement emerged from a demographic tidal wave of unabsorbed youth in late 1980s. Armed forces act was implemented in 1990 to combat insurgency.
2001 census: fall in dependency ratio as the children reached working age. There were no investors willing to sink capital in Kashmir's economy marred by terrorism and war, there was not much progress in the public sector either. Traditional artisanal occupations were in a decline and agriculture presented few opportunities. As a result, today 70% population which is currently under the age of 35, suffers from chronic unemployment and under-employment because of the inability of the economy to absorb a rapidly growing labour force. These are youth who have seen their childhood scarred by war, who grew up surrounded by army and who have become soft targets for Pakistan sponsored power hungry separatists.
Had the economic planning been more sound, based on demographic data analysis and forecasts during 1970s and years following that, Kashmir would have truly been the paradise on earth.
The article is inspired by the Freakonomics' way of exploring things, some hindu articles on Kashmir and data analysis.
