Showing posts with label Growth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Growth. Show all posts

Tuesday, 30 October 2012

The elephant needs shock therapy




Democracy is a form of government in which all eligible citizens have an equal say in the decisions that affect their lives. India adopted representative democracy because of its size; people elect their representatives to power on a periodic basis. India is referred to as an elephant (in contrast to Asian tigers) because it is very big in size (population wise) and it moves very slowly (decisions, reforms and growth wise).

During the early years after independence our leaders nurtured democracy, made people centric decisions, and were honest and not motivated by personal gains. Lal Bahadur Shastri resigned accepting moral and constitutional responsibility for a railway accident at Ariyalur in Tamil Nadu that resulted in 144 deaths. While speaking in Parliament on the incident, Nehru stated that he was accepting the resignation because it would set an example in constitutional propriety and not because Shastri was in any way responsible for the accident. There were other examples too. The standards today have stooped so low that the corrupt are rewarded leave alone ethics.

If India could not achieve rapid growth and development until mid 1960s it was because of the excessive socialistic and idealistic orientation of our policies rather than the intent. After Nehru, there was widespread realization that our policies have failed. A crisis situation emerged when USA stopped food aid temporarily. Lal Bahadur Shastri as the PM undertook bold measures and green revolution was the result of such an effort; however more reforms could not be initiated because of his untimely death.

The unsaintly politics and power struggle that followed cripples Indian democracy till today. Criminalization of politics, corruption, dynastic politics, nepotism, cronyism, misuse and abuse of power and bureaucracy, sectionalism, caste politics, politics of divide and rule, politics of fear, politics of religion and a false sense of nationalism etc have become synonymous with Indian democracy. There are numerous examples of the above and hence I will leave it to that.

Reforms to treat these ills have been few and far between: toothless anti-corruption agencies like CBI, CVC and Lokayuktas (in some states) were created. Rajiv Gandhi undertook certain measures to reform and modernize the government but it was not until the 1991 balance of payment crisis (another crisis) that we were to have serious reforms (and these were not enough). There was no intent this time from our politicians, they had to reform because they did not have any choice.

Early 1990s also saw the fall of communism; reforms in many other developing countries; liberalization; globalization and proliferation of information technology. Information began to flow at an unprecedented rate, a vigilant media and civil society emerged. Civil Society pressure has led to some major reforms like Right to Information (NCPRI and others); Code of conduct during elections; Right to know candidate’s criminal background before elections (ADR); Police reforms etc. It has been clear however that there has been no serious initiative from the ruling class towards reforms. Criminalization of politics, corruption, dynastic politics, nepotism, cronyism, misuse and abuse of power and bureaucracy, sectionalism, caste politics, politics of divide and rule, politics of fear and politics of religion and a false sense of nationalism etc have become like multi-drug resistant diseases. At the same time, following the Darwin’s law of evolution corruption has stepped up from license raj to resource raj (read 2G and Coal gate).

The vigilant civil society of India is growing increasingly restive partially due to its successes too. However the political class has adopted an increasingly arrogant stance. Activists and common people are mocked, called guttersnipes, threatened openly and killed. Criticism from our PM of RTI (yes, he speaks sometimes) shows that they created a Frankenstein. There has also been criticism of well functioning constitutional bodies like CAG and Supreme Court. Multiple cross cutting nexuses have emerged: Politics-Criminals, Politics-Bureaucracy, Politics-Businesses, Politics-Media (paid news), Politics-Civil Society and even between rival political parties. Again there are numerous examples of the above.

Why isn’t our democracy able to evolve and reform itself on a continual basis? Why is a crisis like situation always needed? Why does the elephant always need shock therapy? There have been calls for right to recall, right to reject, Lokpal etc but will these reforms be enough? Even if we assume that these are enough, why will the ruling class dig their own grave? Can the citizens of India vote out the corrupt political class for a non-corrupt one? Who is non-corrupt by the way? How can we usher in a mental revolution of oneness in a diverse India and recognize the politics of divide and rule and sectionalism? If education was the answer to all these questions, why has the increasing literacy rate failed to achieve greater democratic reforms?

The answers to these difficult questions require inputs and analyses from multiple fields and themes. Intellectuals, editorials etc continue to suggest and debate various measures to specific and cross cutting issues. I would try to dwell on the solutions in different posts however there is one data that is worth mentioning here. The voter turnout in elections in India is so less that even an insignificant group (number wise) becomes significant in deciding the outcome. Majority of those elected receive less than even 20% of the votes (casted and non-casted). If people start voting in numbers, the dynamics of politics can start changing in India and for good.

Wednesday, 22 February 2012

Flawed Priorities



It is widely accepted that GDP growth cannot be a measure of a country’s development. Measuring development is very complex but there are certain accepted measures, one of them being Human Development Index (HDI). Human development Index combines three dimensions – A long and healthy life (Life expectancy at birth), Education Index (mean years of schooling and expected years of schooling), a decent standard of living (per capita GNI). India is ranked 134/187 in this index. Iraq, Syria, Palestine, Iran, Sri Lanka and Thailand are some of the countries that are ranked above India in this index.

If we look closely at the HDI of various states in India the findings are more shameful. If Uttar Pradesh and Bihar were independent countries, they would be ranked 5th and 12th in terms of population respectively & 148/187 and 161/187 respectively in HDI’s. Eight of India’s least developed states (BIMAROU states +Assam) constitute 47.62 % of India’s population with their combined HDI lying in the low HDI zone. I can safely say that India is an under-developed country.

India is a socialist country as mentioned in our constitution. It can be argued that the policies India have adopted since 1990s have been of capitalist nature but in truth those steps were means and not the end. The end was to generate sufficient income for the country, boost employment, and increase revenues of the government which could be utilized for development. Distributive justice is important component of socialism whereby government undertakes measures to tax the rich and spend on welfare of the poor.

But Indian spending priorities are flawed. While the ultra rich drive their SUVs on government subsidized Diesel, the government keeps financing the losses of Air India which has no utility for the poor. Spending Billions on enriching the infrastructure of metropolis and comparatively well off states has lead to more migration and unplanned urbanization which has created greater problems. Most of the developmental subjects (health, education etc) are in the state list but governments of the poor states have very less funds at their disposal. Further, expenditure from central quota is based on discretion of the central ministries which are mostly politically motivated.

In recent years, India has increased its defense spending. India has become a donor to some under-developed countries. India also organized the CWG games to showcase itself to the world. It can be argued that these spendings are of strategic concern. But the truth is – India chose these ahead of other pressing needs.

One half of India booms and other is under-developed. The priorities of the Indian development story are flawed.

Thursday, 7 April 2011

Growth is painful


Ask the teenager about growing wisdom tooth. Ask a chubby guy about growing belly. Ask the middle class family about growing budget. Ask the poor parents of a growing daughter. Ask the parents of growing disabled child. Ask the poor man about growing prices. Ask the slum of a growing city. Ask the rivers and forests about propulation growth. Ask the nature about industrialiasation. Ask the humanity about growing intolerance. Growth is invariably accompanied by unavoidable evils that leads to pain. Why do we want growth then ?

You need to mine aluminium or build a dam so you decided to clear up some thousand hectares of forest land. Take the tribals out of forest, give them homes and work in a town and education for their kids. You call this development. Let us see who are happy ? The MNC which got the project, the bureaucrat that gave the clearances, government which can boast of growth. Who bears the pain - the atmosphere which would have more CO2 at its disposal, the biodiversity, the tribals whose community is completely broken and identity is lost. Right, this was a happy case scenario when the tribals get what they are promised. Reality- 10 % of the tribals die in the process of opposing such projects, political bodies use the opportunity to gain political mileage but do actually nothing. 30 % of them join the naxals. 60 % make up for the slums and work at construction sites.

Growth is accompanied by inflation. Growth is for the rich but inflation is for the marginal. The big corporates earn huge profits, where does the money go ? To the rich shareholders, hefty bonuses to the CEOs and nothing to the aam aadmi. The rise in prices of basic goods and services affects the aam aadmi and not the corporates.There is growth in prices of grains and vegetables but why is the farmer still poor ? Because the grain and vegetable has changed some 10 hands in between the farmer and the consumer and those 10 hands(business) made all the money.

India has been growing at more than 8 % (average) since the last 6-7 years. I can see urbanisation but not without slums and increased crime. I can see the stock market booming, the FIIs making money but only at the loss of the retail investor. I can see the rich guy travelling on subsidised petrol but 60 % agricultural lands are still unirrigated and monsoon dependent. I can see hill city Lavasa coming up but i cannot see more than 5 MBBS doctors in Dantewada (population of 70 Lakhs). I saw green revolution and India attain food sufficiency but i still see India as the most malnutritioned country. I see Ambani topping Forbes list but I still see India low on human development index.

It is the crisis of growth. Growth is painful !