Flawed Priorities

It is widely accepted that GDP growth cannot be a measure of a country’s development. Measuring development is very complex but there are certain accepted measures, one of them being Human Development Index (HDI). Human development Index combines three dimensions – A long and healthy life (Life expectancy at birth), Education Index (mean years of schooling and expected years of schooling), a decent standard of living (per capita GNI). India is ranked 134/187 in this index. Iraq, Syria, Palestine, Iran, Sri Lanka and Thailand are some of the countries that are ranked above India in this index.

If we look closely at the HDI of various states in India the findings are more shameful. If Uttar Pradesh and Bihar were independent countries, they would be ranked 5^th and 12^th in terms of population respectively & 148/187 and 161/187 respectively in HDI’s. Eight of India’s least developed states (BIMAROU states +Assam) constitute 47.62 % of India’s population with their combined HDI lying in the low HDI zone. I can safely say that India is an under-developed country.

India is a socialist country as mentioned in our constitution. It can be argued that the policies India have adopted since 1990s have been of capitalist nature but in truth those steps were means and not the end. The end was to generate sufficient income for the country, boost employment, and increase revenues of the government which could be utilized for development. Distributive justice is important component of socialism whereby government undertakes measures to tax the rich and spend on welfare of the poor.

But Indian spending priorities are flawed. While the ultra rich drive their SUVs on government subsidized Diesel, the government keeps financing the losses of Air India which has no utility for the poor. Spending Billions on enriching the infrastructure of metropolis and comparatively well off states has lead to more migration and unplanned urbanization which has created greater problems. Most of the developmental subjects (health, education etc) are in the state list but governments of the poor states have very less funds at their disposal. Further, expenditure from central quota is based on discretion of the central ministries which are mostly politically motivated.

In recent years, India has increased its defense spending. India has become a donor to some under-developed countries. India also organized the CWG games to showcase itself to the world. It can be argued that these spendings are of strategic concern. But the truth is – India chose these ahead of other pressing needs.

One half of India booms and other is under-developed. The priorities of the Indian development story are flawed.

Politics and the post of Governor

Constitution of India provides for a Governor in each state. Governor is the ceremonial head while Chief Minister is the effective head of the state government. The post of Governor was conceived as an independent and impartial Constitutional office and therefore was kept outside the purview of elections. Governor acts as a vital link between the center and the state governments. But this post of Governor has been misused badly by those at the center. Recent controversies in Karnataka, Gujarat and Bihar have flared up the issue once more. Here is a bit of analysis on the present scenario.

Indian State	Governor Name	Took Office	Background
Andhra Pradesh	E.S.L. Narasimhan	27 December 2009	Civil Servant
Arunachal Pradesh	General Joginder Jaswant Singh	24 January 2008	Chief of Army
Assam	Janaki Ballabh Patnaik	27 November 2009	Congress
Bihar	Devanand Konwar	24 July 2009	Congress
Chhattisgarh	Shekhar Dutt, SM	23 January 2010	Civil Servant
Goa	K. Sankaranarayanan	August 2011	Congress
Gujarat	Kamla Beniwal	27 November 2009	Congress
Haryana	Jagannath Pahadia	27 July 2009	Congress
Himachal Pradesh	Urmila Singh	25 January 2010	Congress
Jammu and Kashmir	Narinder Nath Vohra	25 June 2008	Civil Servant
Jharkhand	Dr. Syed Ahmed	26 august 2011	Congress
Karnataka	Hans Raj Bhardwaj	29 June 2009	Congress
Kerala	M. O. Hasan Farook Maricar	August 2011	Congress
Madhya Pradesh	Ram Naresh Yadav	26 august 2011	Congress
Maharashtra	K. Sankaranarayanan	22 January 2010	Congress
Manipur	Gurbachan Jagat	23 July 2008	Civil Servant
Meghalaya	Ranjit Shekhar Mooshahary	1 July 2008	Civil Servant
Mizoram	Shri Vakkom Purushothaman	26 august 2011	Congress
Nagaland	Nikhil Kumar	15 October 2009	Congress
Odisha	Murlidhar Chandrakant Bhandare	21 August 2007	Congress
Punjab	Shivraj Patil	22 January 2010	Congress
Rajasthan	Shivraj Patil (additional charge)	26 April 2010	Congress
Sikkim	Balmiki Prasad Singh	9 July 2008	Civil Servant
Tamil Nadu	Konijeti Rosaiah	26 august 2011	Congress
Tripura	Dnyandeo Yashwantrao Patil	27 November 2009	Congress
Uttarakhand	Margaret Alva	19 July 2009	Congress
Uttar Pradesh	Banwari Lal Joshi	28 July 2009	Civil Servant
West Bengal	M.K. Narayanan	24 January 2010	Civil Servant

As can be seen from the data, 19 out of 28 Governors had political affiliations with the Congress in the past. No Governor had any political affiliation with any party other than the Congress. This data highlights the extent to which President (President appoints the Governor) is biased in favour of the Congress. The probable reason is - she herself was affiliated to the Congress in the past.

Sarkaria commission report on center state relations (1988) noted - "Frequent removals and transfers of Governors before the end of their tenure have lowered the prestige of this office. Criticism has been levelled that the Union governments utilises the Governors for its own political ends. Many Governors looking forward to further office under the Union or active role in politics after their tenure come to regard themselves as agents of the Union". This observation holds true even today.

Power crisis in Bihar

Let me present some data before I begin.

Population (million)
India                = 1210
Bihar               = 0103
Patna              = 0006
Rest of Bihar   = 0097

Total Installed capacity of Power generation (MW)
India                                                    = 172000
Bihar's share                                        = 001695
Actual supply                                       = 000677
Emergency services and Patna's share   = 000600
Rest of Bihar                                        = 000077

Per capita terms (MW/million)
India                       = 142.1
Bihar's share           = 016.5
Actual supply          = 006.5
Patna                      = 100.0
Rest of Bihar           = 000.8

India/ Rest of Bihar = 178

Right then, take a deep breath, drink some water or may be blur out the 'f' word. If you still can't digest it, see a doctor. Rest of Bihar (8% of India) is 178 times more deprived than an average Indian and you say we are backward.

Electrification is one thing but providing electricity a completely different one. Electricity is one of the most basic infrastructures required to start any business/industrial establishment and so no jobs, no growth, no development. I won't go on on this topic, we all are aware.

I will tell you an incident of Bhagalpur (3rd largest district in Bihar).

Some 8-10 years back, the power scenario was less than 1 hour per day for around 1 month or so. A group of people staged non-violent protest infront of the electricity department. The protesters were shut up in a warehouse and beaten up badly. The incident was widely reported and out of nowhere there was electricity for more than 12 hours the next day.

This March, same scenario, no electricity, no water. Without any prior announcement of bandh, an organised protest started all over the city at around 10 am. The two buildings of the electricity departments, 2 jeeps and 8 motor cycles were set ablaze by the violent mob. The aam aadmi supported the bandh. Administration was caught unprepared and could do nothing but watch. The incident was widely reported and out of nowhere there was electricity for more than 12 hours the next day.

Questions?

1. Where did the electricity suddenly come from ?
2. What precedent does "the sense of victory through undemocratic means" set forth ?
3. Why was the administration unable to sniff such widespread organised action coming up ?
4. Why the hell is 8 % of Indian population 178 times deprived ?

This answers one grave question though - "Why do the Biharis migrate to other states ?"

Kashmir: More of an economic and planning failure

The state of affairs in Kashmir during the past two decades have been agonising. The reasons that have been observed by many are Pakistan sponsored insurgency and terrorism, Armed forces act, demand for autonomy etc. These reasons cannot be denied but the major reason for the present state of Kashmir lies in the undercurrent of demographic imbalance and failed economic planning.

Kashmir observed large scale deaths in first decade of 19th century. Epidemics of cholera broke out three times. Three floods and eight earthquakes claimed thousands of lives. Epidemics of influenza, cholera and small pox occurred during the next decade and the 1920s saw another round of diseases and famine. Clearly Kashmir was in a state of despair in the pre-indepence era.

Post independence, there was success in combating this deprivation. From 1971 onwards J&K recorded growth rates higher (40% decadal) than the national average (30% decadal). 1981 census: over 40% of the population was made up of children under 14. The economic gains made during the previous decade ran into a wall. Despite their relative affluence, the economic stress was more on the earning individual. Dependency ratio was around 95 as compared to all India ratio of 78 (Dependency ratio measures the part of society dependent on economically productive individuals aged between 15 and 59). Insurgency started during this very time. Jihadist movement emerged from a demographic tidal wave of unabsorbed youth in late 1980s. Armed forces act was implemented in 1990 to combat insurgency.

2001 census: fall in dependency ratio as the children reached working age. There were no investors willing to sink capital in Kashmir's economy marred by terrorism and war, there was not much progress in the public sector either. Traditional artisanal occupations were in a decline and agriculture presented few opportunities. As a result, today 70% population which is currently under the age of 35, suffers from chronic unemployment and under-employment because of the inability of the economy to absorb a rapidly growing labour force. These are youth who have seen their childhood scarred by war, who grew up surrounded by army and who have become soft targets for Pakistan sponsored power hungry separatists.

Had the economic planning been more sound, based on demographic data analysis and forecasts during 1970s and years following that, Kashmir would have truly been the paradise on earth.

The article is inspired by the Freakonomics' way of exploring things, some hindu articles on Kashmir and data analysis.